RecruitingNot ApplicableNCT05848752

Studies of Human Inference Using On-line Testing

On-line Crowdsourcing of Multi-Timescale Inference Strategies

Sponsor

University of Colorado, Boulder

Enrollment

1,000 participants

Start Date

Feb 15, 2025

Study Type

INTERVENTIONAL

Conditions

Behavior

Summary

The investigators will record behavioral responses from human participants on crowdsourcing platform Prolific to identify the decision strategies humans apply short-term, long-term, and multi timescale (across both timescales) inference tasks. Participants will perform a flexible decision-making task (described in Research Strategy Aim 1) in which subjects must determine which of two locations a series of evidence (package drops) came from. Subjects must 1) report the current location, 2) predict the next location. The investigators will record these responses, the number (and sequence) of evidence, and the response time (time from the end of trial until the response) for each trial. Subjects will perform all blocks (parameters and number of blocks to be determined by inference model development and testing prior to task development) so that we can compare responses at each timescale. Since participants participate voluntarily for small sums of money (around $12/ hour based on duration of task) and the investigators' previous studies have collected over 200 subjects in a matter of days, they will aim to record behavioral data from 1000 subjects. This number allows them to address the broad range of subject variability expected using Bayesian statistical methods such as Bayes factors.

Eligibility

Min Age: 18 Years

Plain Language Summary

Simplified for easier understanding

This study investigates how humans make inferences — how we draw conclusions that go beyond the information directly given to us. Inference is fundamental to language comprehension, problem-solving, and everyday reasoning, yet scientists still don't fully understand the cognitive mechanisms that drive it. Using online testing through the Prolific platform, this study presents participants with a range of inferential reasoning tasks to map out how accurately and efficiently people draw different types of inferences, and what factors predict performance. Eligible participants must be adults (18 or older) who are US-based Prolific users with a 95% approval rating, speak fluent English, and achieve a minimum score of 80% on a pre-screening test of basic comprehension or eligibility. There are no exclusion criteria beyond failing to meet these criteria. Participants will complete online cognitive tasks measuring various forms of inferential reasoning, accessible entirely through a computer or smartphone. This research matters because human inference — the ability to understand what is meant beyond what is literally said, to fill in gaps in information, and to reason about causes and consequences — underpins virtually all communication and learning. Understanding the conditions under which inference succeeds or fails has implications for education, communication design, legal reasoning, and the development of AI systems that can engage in more human-like reasoning.

This summary was AI-generated to explain the trial in plain language. It is not medical advice. Always discuss eligibility with your doctor before enrolling in a clinical trial.

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Interventions

BEHAVIORALpsychophysics

Subjects will be shown two locations and a series of package drops that switch between the two locations with an unknown frequency. Subjects must identify which location is current in use and which location will be selected next. Subjects know that the frequency of the location changes is different in each block but not its exact value